Communicator

Oil Majors Market Capitalization. By: Aniekpong D. Effiong. Data source: CompaniesMarketCap.

By Portfolio Planning PLUS, 6^th May 2025

BP, the British energy giant, has become a focal point of merger speculation as rivals Shell and Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC weigh strategic moves to acquire the company. The developments highlight BP’s vulnerability amid lagging stock performance and shifting energy priorities, with potential bids reflecting divergent visions for the future of the oil sector.

Shell’s Calculated Interest

Shell is actively evaluating a takeover of BP, according to Bloomberg and Reuters sources, with advisers assessing regulatory, financial, and operational implications. The rationale centers on BP’s discounted valuation-its shares have fallen nearly 30% over 12 months-and the strategic appeal of combining Shell’s $197 billion market cap with BP’s assets to rival U.S. giants ExxonMobil and Chevron.

A merger would create a $320 billion behemoth, dominate LNG and deepwater drilling portfolios, and unlock an estimated $5–7 billion in annual synergies. However, Shell CEO Wael Sawan has emphasized caution, telling the Financial Times that share buybacks and smaller acquisitions remain priorities. Regulatory scrutiny in the EU and U.S., particularly over overlapping downstream assets, could also complicate a deal.

ADNOC’s Earlier Overtures

ADNOC, the UAE’s state-owned energy leader, previously explored acquiring BP in 2024 but abandoned the idea after deeming the company a poor strategic fit. Sources cited BP’s renewable energy pivot and political sensitivities as key deterrents. Instead, ADNOC has focused on gas and chemical ventures, including a $3.6 billion Fertiglobe acquisition and a joint venture with BP in Egypt.

The UAE giant’s decision underscores BP’s challenging position: criticized by investors for its energy transition strategy yet still seen as insufficiently green by some state-backed players. ADNOC’s pivot toward partnerships rather than outright acquisitions suggests BP’s mixed appeal in a sector prioritizing either scale or decarbonization.

BP’s Crossroads

BP’s struggles are multifaceted. Its market capitalization of $110 billion trails Shell’s by nearly half, and its revised transition plan-scaling back renewables investment to focus on oil and gas-has yet to reassure markets. Activist investor Elliott Management acquired a 5% stake in late 2024, intensifying pressure to improve returns.

CEO Murray Auchincloss, who took the helm in 2024, has pledged $20 billion in asset sales by 2027 to streamline operations. However, these efforts have done little to lift its stock, leaving BP exposed to takeover interest.

Industry Implications

A Shell-BP merger would accelerate consolidation among European majors, mirroring U.S. deals like Exxon-Pioneer and Chevron-Hess. For ADNOC, BP’s appeal lies in LNG and trading capabilities, but its renewables portfolio clashes with the UAE’s oil-focused growth strategy.

Analysts note that BP’s future hinges on whether it can stabilize operations independently or becomes a target for firms seeking to bolster reserves and market share. “BP is caught between competing visions: too green for some, not green enough for others,” said energy strategist Kathleen Brooks. “That paradox makes it a compelling but risky target.”

What’s Next?

Shell’s next steps depend on BP’s stock trajectory and oil price stability. ADNOC, while out of the running for now, could re-engage if geopolitical or market conditions shift. For BP, the path forward involves either executing its turnaround plan or succumbing to the pressures of an industry increasingly defined by scale.

As the energy transition reshapes priorities, BP’s fate may well determine whether European majors can compete globally-or become acquisition targets themselves.

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BP Gelsenkirchen Refinery

GELSENKIRCHEN, Germany | February 6, 2025

BP has announced its intention to sell its Ruhr Oel GmbH operations in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, including the refinery and associated petrochemical assets19. The marketing process begins immediately, with BP targeting to complete the sale agreement within 2025, subject to regulatory approvals.

The Gelsenkirchen facility, Germany's third-largest refinery, currently processes approximately 12 million tons of crude oil annually and employs around 2,000 workers and 160 apprentices. The sale package includes the BP refinery in Gelsenkirchen and DHC Solvent Chemie GmbH in Mülheim an der Ruhr.

The decision comes amid challenging conditions for European refiners, who face increasing competition from Middle Eastern and Asian facilities, along with pressure from vehicle electrification and high operating costs. BP had already planned to reduce the refinery's capacity from 260,000 barrels per day of crude oil to 155,000 barrels per day in 2025.

Emma Delaney, BP's Executive Vice President for customers and products, explained that the decision aligns with BP's strategy to become a simpler, more focused, higher-value company. The company has recently modernized the facility's infrastructure, including power grid renewal and establishing independent steam supply, making it attractive for potential buyers.

The Gelsenkirchen site plays a crucial role in North Rhine-Westphalia's chemical industry, producing not only conventional fuels but also having the potential to manufacture biofuels and process recycled plastics. The refinery will continue normal operations throughout the sales process.

This move is part of a broader trend in Germany's refining sector, with other major players like Shell and ExxonMobil also seeking to divest their refining assets in the country. Industry analysts expect German crude refining capacity to decrease from 2.1 million barrels per day in 2020 to 1.8 million barrels per day by 2026.

#crudeoil #refining #refinery #bp #shell #exxon #germany #gelsenkirchen