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Europe is facing a deepening energy crunch as domestic natural gas production plunges to its lowest level since 2021, even as demand surges to multi-year highs. According to the latest Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) report, European gas output dropped 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching just 47.7 billion cubic meters (bcm)-a stark reversal after a brief rebound in 2023 and 2024. The decline accelerated in March, with production falling 4% compared to the same month last year, marking the fifth consecutive month of shrinking output.

Figure 1 - YTD Europe’s gas production. GECF Monthly Gas Market Report – May 2025. Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from Refinitiv, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate and JODI Gas


Norway, which supplies about two-thirds of Europe’s gas, led the downturn. Its production fell 7% to 31.5 bcm, reflecting both natural field depletion and a lack of new investments. The UK’s output also shrank by 5% to 8.3 bcm, largely due to extended maintenance at the Bacton Gas Terminal. The Netherlands, once a cornerstone of Europe’s gas supply, saw a dramatic 25% collapse to just 2.4 bcm, a consequence of depleted reserves and government-mandated shutdowns of key fields such as Groningen. Across the continent, new exploration and investment in upstream gas projects remain at a standstill, further constraining supply.

Figure 2 - Left - Europe's monthly gas production / Right - Y-o-y variation in Europe's gas production by country. GECF Monthly Gas Market Report – May 2025. Source: GECF Secretariat based on data from LSEG, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate and JODI Gas. Note: EU countries include Austria, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Romania.


While production falters, European gas consumption is moving sharply in the opposite direction. Demand surged 9% year-on-year in the first quarter, reaching 134.8 bcm, and totaled 160.6 bcm from January to April-up 6% from the previous year. March alone saw a 5.2% jump in EU gas demand, extending a seven-month streak of rising consumption. This demand spike is driven by colder weather, a rebound in industrial activity, and-critically-a sharp drop in electricity generation from renewables. As wind and solar output faltered, gas-fired power plants were forced to ramp up, especially to stabilize grids during periods of volatility.

Figure 3 - EU-16 incl UK: NatGas Consumption for Power Generation in bcm per month; Burggraben analysis; Commodity Essentials; Bloomberg.


The situation has been further complicated by the unprecedented blackout that struck Spain and Portugal in late April. The sudden loss of 15 gigawatts-around 60% of Spain’s power-within seconds exposed the vulnerabilities of a grid increasingly reliant on intermittent renewables and cross-border flows. During the restoration, Spanish grid operator Red Eléctrica prioritized dispatchable sources, notably nuclear and combined-cycle gas plants, to quickly bring the system back online. Compounding this, Spain’s reliance on imported gas has grown: LNG imports from the United States surged to 35% of Spain’s total this year, up from 20% last year.

Europe’s gas market is now under mounting pressure. With domestic production in freefall, the continent is turning increasingly to imports. The International Energy Agency forecasts a 25% surge in European LNG imports this year, as lower piped gas flows and robust demand force buyers to seek supplies on the global market. This scramble for LNG is driving up prices and intensifying competition with Asia, where demand is now falling in the face of higher costs and Europe’s willingness to pay a premium.

Figure 4 - EU quarterly imports by source. Last updated: 11/04/2025. Source: Bruegel based on ENTSOG, GIE and Bloomberg


At the same time, gas storage levels across the EU remain a concern, with inventories at 43.67% of capacity as of mid-May-significantly lower than the seasonal averages and well below last year’s levels at this time. The situation varies by country: Germany’s storage is at 36.45%, Italy at 52.78%, France at 50.78%, the Netherlands at just 29.67%, Austria at 50.20%, and Spain leading with 72.29%. This depletion reflects the impact of a colder winter and increased withdrawals to offset reduced imports, particularly following the halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine at the start of 2025. While Norway remains the EU’s largest supplier, Russian gas flows have edged higher again, even as ongoing political uncertainty clouds the outlook for future deliveries.

Figure 5 - GIE's Aggregate Gas Storage Inventory


The combination of falling domestic output, rising demand, and tight global markets is pushing European gas prices higher. Industrial users now face costs up to five times those in the United States, threatening competitiveness and raising fears of renewed energy-driven inflation. Without urgent investment in new production, infrastructure, and flexible backup generation, Europe’s energy security risks further erosion-especially as climate volatility and grid instability become more frequent.

Figure 6 - Dutch TTF Gas Jun '25 (TGM25) in euros per megawatt-hour (€ / MWh). Source: Barchart


The Spanish blackout stands as a warning: in a system where renewables dominate but dispatchable capacity is neglected, the margin for error is razor-thin. As Europe scrambles to keep the lights on and factories running, the continent’s self-inflicted gas crunch is fast becoming a test of both energy policy and political resolve.

#naturalgas  #powerplant  #combinedcycle  #gasplant  #nuclearenergy  #npp  #dispatchableenergy  #solarenergy  #windenergy  #blackout  #gasprices  #lng

Dutch TTF Gas March 25 (TGH25) Price Chart (€/MWh)

Yara's Hull Plant Mothballing Highlights Europe's Ongoing Energy Challenges

The recent announcement (on 7 February 2025) of Yara International's decision to mothball its Hull ammonia plant in the UK, which has an annual capacity of 300,000 metric tons represents a striking example of how Europe's energy crisis continues to impact industrial production.

This decision is part of a broader strategy to reduce European ammonia production by 1 million metric tons due to high natural gas feedstock costs and the impact of European carbon policies.

The Hull plant closure, likely permanent, reflects the challenges faced by energy-intensive industries in Europe, where elevated energy prices and regulatory pressures have significantly eroded competitiveness.

The Natural Gas-Fertilizer Connection

Fertilizer production, particularly nitrogen-based fertilizers, is
inextricably linked to natural gas prices. Natural gas serves not only as an energy source but also as a key raw material in the production process. Through the Haber-Bosch process, natural gas (methane) is converted into hydrogen, which then combines with nitrogen from the air to produce ammonia – the building block of nitrogen fertilizers.

When natural gas prices surge, fertilizer production costs increase dramatically, as gas can represent up to 80% of the production costs for nitrogen fertilizers. This direct relationship makes fertilizer plants particularly vulnerable to gas price volatility.

The Chain of Events: Europe's Energy Market Transformation

The current situation stems from a series of significant changes in Europe's energy landscape:

Europe took the decisive step of sanctioning gas imports from Russia altogether, forcing a dramatic restructuring of its energy supply chains. This led to a rushed transition toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) from distant suppliers like the United States and Qatar. However, LNG proves significantly more expensive than pipeline gas due to the complex processes of liquefaction, oceanic transport, storage and regasification.

Germany's decision to accelerate the dismantling of its nuclear power plants set an early precedent for increased gas dependency in Europe's largest economy. This shift put additional pressure on the continent's gas supplies and grid stability.

The situation intensified when the Baltic states decided to cut
themselves off from the Russian power grid on 9 February 2025, leading to significant spikes in regional electricity prices. This was preceded by Ukraine's decision to halt gas transit through its territory on 1 January 2025, which had been a crucial pipeline route for Russian gas reaching European markets.

New U.K. Tax Rates Are Hammering North Sea Oil And Gas Drilling

In the UK, the situation intensified in October when the UK government raised the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), commonly known as the windfall tax, from 35% to 38%. The United Kingdom currently imposes one of the world's highest tax burdens on offshore oil and gas production, with operators in the North Sea facing a total tax rate of 78% resulting from the combination of standard taxation and the EPL.

The policy has created a challenging environment for the UK's domestic energy production, Britain now paying the highest electricity prices in the World.

Norway's Gas Threat: A New Risk to Europe's Energy Security

Norway, a critical supplier of natural gas to Europe, has recently hinted at potential disruptions to its energy exports due to domestic and geopolitical pressures. Currently providing nearly half of Germany's gas supply, Norway has become indispensable for European energy security following the decline of Russian gas imports.

However, soaring electricity prices in Norway—six times the EU average—have sparked domestic backlash, with political parties advocating for reduced energy exports to prioritize national affordability. Additionally, technical failures, such as the January 2025 shutdown of Norway's Hammerfest LNG plant, have already tightened Europe's strained energy supply.

These developments highlight Europe’s vulnerability to disruptions in Norwegian gas flows, further exacerbating its ongoing energy crisis.

European Decarbonization Policies

Both the EU and the UK are undergoing significant transformations in their energy landscapes as part of ambitious decarbonization policies aimed at achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The EU’s European Green Deal and legally binding Climate Law, alongside the UK’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan and Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), have driven renewable energy adoption and reduced reliance on fossil fuels.

The measures have significantly impacted energy prices across Europe. Investments in green technologies, carbon pricing, and restrictions on fossil fuel use have increased costs for industries and households alike.

In the UK, phasing out coal power and limiting new oil and gas licenses have heightened dependency on renewables and imported energy, raising concerns about energy security.

Deindustrialization in Europe: The Impact of Surging Energy and Gas Prices

These rising costs are placing heavy financial pressure on energy-intensive industries across Europe and the UK, accelerating trends of deindustrialization, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, net zero energy policy decisions, and the reduction of Russian gas supplies.

Energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals, steel, and aluminum, have been particularly affected, with many companies curbing production or relocating to regions with lower energy costs like the U.S. or Asia. Yara's decision to close its Hull ammonia plant is only the latest in a long list of industrial failures across Europe.

#naturalgas  #deindustrialization  #europe  #fertilizer  #ammonia  #lng #ttf

Gas-fired power station has been added and a generic gas power plant technology created.

#gaspowerplant #gaspowerstation  #naturalgas  #steamcycle  #combinedcycle  #gasturbine 

ExxonMobil has unveiled an ambitious growth plan to increase its total production of oil and gas to 5.4 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, representing an 18% increase from current levels.

ExxonMobil News releases | Dec. 11, 2024

KEY PRODUCTION TARGETS

Permian Basin Operations

The company plans to roughly double its production in the Permian Basin to approximately 2.3 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 20301. This expansion is supported by ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, which has given them the largest contiguous acreage position in the region1

Guyana Operations

In Guyana, ExxonMobil expects to reach a total production capacity of 1.7 million barrels per day, with gross production growing to 1.3 million barrels per day by 20301. The company plans to develop eight projects in the region by 2030.

FINANCIAL INVESTMENT

Capital Expenditure

▪️ 2025: $27-29 billion in cash capital expenditure1
▪️ 2026-2030: $28-33 billion annually1

Expected Returns

The company projects an additional $20 billion in earnings and $30 billion in cash flow over the next six years. These investments are expected to generate returns of more than 30% over their lifetime4

STRATEGIC FOCUS

By 2030, more than 60% of the company's production will come from advantaged assets (Permian, Guyana, and LNG), up from the current 50%. The company also plans to pursue up to $30 billion in lower emissions investment opportunities while targeting to lower its operated Upstream emissions intensity by 40-50% versus 2016 levels.

#naturalgas  #crudeoil  #exxonmobil  #oildemand  #demandgrowth 

African Energy Week 2024 presents the vision of a diversified energy future

AFRICAN ENERGY WEEK: OIL & GAS DEMAND EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 2050

Global demand for oil and gas is expected to remain strong in the coming decades, according to Haitham al-Ghais, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Speaking at the  Africa Energy Week (AEW) in Cape Town,  South Africa, on 6 November, Haitham al-Ghais explained that this increase in energy demand would be driven by global population growth and a doubling of global GDP by 2050. “OPEC sees the outlook for global oil and gas consumption as very positive. By 2050, energy demand will increase by 24%,” he said.

The world population, currently 8 billion, is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, with a significant share of this growth concentrated in developing countries, particularly in Africa. Al-Ghais stressed that this population increase and the economic growth of emerging megacities and cities of several million inhabitants would amplify the demand for energy, requiring the mobilization of all available resources, including fossil fuels.

The leading role of oil and gas

According to OPEC projections, oil and natural gas will still account for 55% of global energy supply in 2050, with oil alone accounting for 30% of this share. “The world will need all kinds of energy resources in the coming decades,” the OPEC Secretary General said, adding that renewables, although growing, will not be enough to meet this increased demand. In order to meet the growing needs and stabilize markets, OPEC estimates that massive investments will be needed in the oil sector. “Until 2050, the oil sector will require investments of $17.4 trillion,” al-Ghais said, adding that this funding will be mainly directed towards production programs to ensure stable supplies and prevent sudden fluctuations in fuel prices.

A strategic event for the sector

The African Energy Week, which brings together over 1,000 participants, including officials from 22 African countries, industrialists, business people and analysts, continues until November 8. The event provides a platform to discuss energy challenges in Africa and how the continent can meet the growing global energy needs.

Source

#oilandgas #crudeoil #naturalgas #africa #refining #refinery #oildemand #energy #fossilfuels #fuelprices #oilsector

Sunset on a refinery

"Oil refineries across Europe will be forced to shut as the West abandons fossil fuels in the race to net zero," – said BP CEO Murray Okincloss, commenting on the company's financial statements, The Telegraph reports.

He believes that older and smaller refineries in the EU will close or switch to biofuels as conventional oil refining becomes unprofitable due to a combination of soaring fuel taxes and falling demand from drivers switching to electric cars.

“So I would expect the least efficient refineries, which are the smallest, oldest around the world, to gradually close down as the world transitions over the next 10 to 30 years.”

BP has four refineries in Europe, three of which are already planned for conversion to produce biofuels including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Grangemouth Refinery in Scotland, which is owned by Ineos, employs 500 people but is scheduled to shut early next year.

Data from Fuels Europe shows that refining capacity in the EU, as well as in the UK, Switzerland and Norway, is already declining. Capacity has fallen from 781 million tonnes a year in 2009 to 677 million tonnes now. This means that Europe accounts for about 15% of the world's refining capacity - well behind the US with 21% or  APAC with 36%.

Contradicting the statements reported above, BP said in June that it was scaling back this year’s plans for the development of new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel projects at its existing sites, pausing planning for two potential projects while continuing to assess three for progression, according to Oilprice.

“This is aligned with BP’s drive to simplify its portfolio, focusing on value and returns,” the UK-based supermajor said.

In June, BP declared to continue investing in deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico, and made a statement saying it was "scaling back" new biofuels projects.

The company has tempered its enthusiasm for its low-carbon program, and with it cut its climate commitments, adapting to an operating model that assumes continued high oil demand into the 2040s and beyond.

“Labour policy says oil and gas production in the North Sea will be with us for decades to come ... They launched a consultation process with the sector last night and we’ll be engaged deeply with them on that,” Okincloss said.

The oil giant's net profit for the second quarter of this year was higher than expected ($2.76 billion). The company's low-carbon and natural gas division, on the other hand, performed poorly, posting a loss of $0.1 billion.

#refining  #refinery  #crudeoil  #naturalgas  #oilandgas  #europe  #saf  #sustainableaviationfuel  #renewablediesel  #biofuels 

A completed LNG heat exchanger manufactured at Air Products' Port Manatee facility is being loaded on a carrier at the Port of Manatee for shipment to the customer.

On 10 July 2024, Honeywell and Air Products jointly announced today that Honeywell has agreed to acquire Air Products’ liquefied natural gas (LNG) process technology and equipment business for $1.81 billion in an all-cash transaction. This represents approximately 13x estimated 2024 EBITDA.

Air Products’ LNG Business has approximately 475 employees with headquarters in Allentown, Pennsylvania and a 390,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Port Manatee, Florida, where all sizes of CWHEs are made.

Currently, Honeywell provides a pre-treatment solution serving LNG customers globally. Air Products’ complementary LNG process technology and equipment business consists of a comprehensive portfolio, including in-house design and manufacturing of coil-wound heat exchangers (CWHE) and related equipment. CWHEs provide the highest throughput of natural gas in a single exchanger with a small footprint and robust, reliable and safe operations both onshore and offshore.

Air Products continues to focus on its two-pillar strategy to grow and invest in its industrial gas business and drive the energy transition through clean hydrogen at scale.

#lng  #hydrogen  #greenhydrogen  #bluehydrogen  #liquifaction  #naturalgas  #airproducts  #honeywell