Communicator

Vitol's ATB Terminal in Malaysia.

In a recent report, Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, has projected that global oil demand will remain at current levels until at least 2040. This forecast challenges earlier predictions of a peak in oil demand followed by a sharp decline due to the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources.

Vitol's analysis suggests that while demand for oil in developed nations may decrease, this will be offset by rising demand in developing economies. The company cites population growth, economic expansion, and urbanization as key factors driving this continued demand.

The report also highlights the role of the petrochemicals industry, which is expected to see increased oil demand for the production of plastics and other materials. This growth, coupled with demand from developing nations, is anticipated to keep global oil consumption steady.

While acknowledging the global push for cleaner energy, Vitol's forecast indicates that oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future. The company's analysis underscores the complex challenges of balancing economic development with the transition to a more sustainable energy future.

China: Vitol's global head of research, Giovanni Serio, has highlighted that China will continue to play a critical role in global oil demand, particularly in the petrochemical sector. Despite the rise of electric vehicles and the energy transition, China's focus on petrochemicals is expected to drive oil demand.

Long-Term Forecast: Vitol has pushed back its peak oil demand forecast globally to the 2030s, citing a slower uptake of electric vehicles and lower commitments to environmental targets. The company also anticipates that jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks will drive global oil demand growth in the next five years.

These insights reflect Vitol's evolving views on the future of oil demand, emphasizing the role of emerging markets and the ongoing energy transition.

#vitol #energy #energytrannsition #oildemand #crudeoil #petrochemicals

African Energy Week 2024 presents the vision of a diversified energy future

AFRICAN ENERGY WEEK: OIL & GAS DEMAND EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 2050

Global demand for oil and gas is expected to remain strong in the coming decades, according to Haitham al-Ghais, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Speaking at the Africa Energy Week (AEW) in Cape Town, South Africa, on 6 November, Haitham al-Ghais explained that this increase in energy demand would be driven by global population growth and a doubling of global GDP by 2050. “OPEC sees the outlook for global oil and gas consumption as very positive. By 2050, energy demand will increase by 24%,” he said.

The world population, currently 8 billion, is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, with a significant share of this growth concentrated in developing countries, particularly in Africa. Al-Ghais stressed that this population increase and the economic growth of emerging megacities and cities of several million inhabitants would amplify the demand for energy, requiring the mobilization of all available resources, including fossil fuels.

The leading role of oil and gas

According to OPEC projections, oil and natural gas will still account for 55% of global energy supply in 2050, with oil alone accounting for 30% of this share. “The world will need all kinds of energy resources in the coming decades,” the OPEC Secretary General said, adding that renewables, although growing, will not be enough to meet this increased demand. In order to meet the growing needs and stabilize markets, OPEC estimates that massive investments will be needed in the oil sector. “Until 2050, the oil sector will require investments of $17.4 trillion,” al-Ghais said, adding that this funding will be mainly directed towards production programs to ensure stable supplies and prevent sudden fluctuations in fuel prices.

A strategic event for the sector

The African Energy Week, which brings together over 1,000 participants, including officials from 22 African countries, industrialists, business people and analysts, continues until November 8. The event provides a platform to discuss energy challenges in Africa and how the continent can meet the growing global energy needs.

Source

#oilandgas #crudeoil #naturalgas #africa #refining #refinery #oildemand #energy #fossilfuels #fuelprices #oilsector